cotton-intelligence-platform
by
Janvi shah
Janvi shahI want to build this system
Landing
Comments (0)
Sign in to leave a comment
Trade & Positioning
CFTC Commitment of Traders · Managed Money Speculative Flows · US Export Sales Intelligence
MM Net Position+53,221+3,020 WoWBullish
5-Yr Percentile72ndvs 68th prior weekElevated
Total Open Interest245,800+1,840 WoWGrowing
Export Sales YTD66.7%of USDA seasonal targetOn Pace
Commercial Net−56,780−1,900 WoWHeavy Short
COT Report Date20 May 2026Positions as of Tuesday closeWeekly
CFTC Commitment of Traders — Disaggregated Report
ICE Cotton No. 2 (CT) · Positions as of Tuesday 20 May 2026 · All figures in contracts (1 contract = 50,000 lbs)
| Trader Category | Long | Short | Net Position | Long WoW Δ | Short WoW Δ | Net WoW Δ | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money (Speculative) | 87,432 | 34,211 | +53,221 | +2,140 | −880 | +3,020 | ▲ Bullish |
| Commercial Hedgers | 41,560 | 98,340 | −56,780 | −670 | +1,230 | −1,900 | ▼ Bearish |
| Swap Dealers | 29,870 | 18,440 | +11,430 | +310 | +120 | +190 | → Neutral |
| Other Reportables | 12,340 | 9,870 | +2,470 | −220 | +140 | −360 | → Neutral |
| Total Open Interest | |||||||
| All Reportable Positions | 171,202 | 160,861 | +10,341 | +1,560 | +610 | +950 | — |
Position Size Comparison — Long vs Short by Category
Managed Money Net Position — 52-Week History
Weekly managed money (speculative) net long/short contracts · ICE Cotton No. 2 · Source: CFTC.gov
Managed Money Net Position (Contracts) — 26 Weeks Shown
Net LongNet ShortLatest Reading
5-Year Positioning Percentile Rank72nd
Prior week: 68th pct · 52-wk high: 79th pct · 52-wk low: 14th pct
0 — Extreme Short100 — Extreme Long
Managed money net longs are elevated but not extreme.Prior week: 68th pct · 52-wk high: 79th pct · 52-wk low: 14th pct
Open Interest Trend — 26 Weeks
Rising OI with rising price confirms trend conviction · Current: 245,800
Commercial Hedger Net Position — 26 Weeks
Increasing commercial longs signal physical buying interest · Current: −56,780
Commercial Hedger & Open Interest Analysis
Commercial hedger positioning signals physical market sentiment · Rising commercial longs indicate physical buying interest
Total Open Interest
245,800
+1,840 WoW · Expanding
Commercial Long
41,560
Physical buying coverage
Commercial Short
98,340
Hedger short pressure
Commercial Net
−56,780
Net hedger short bias
Commercial Net Position — 26 Weeks
Increasingly negative = producers/merchants hedging forward sales
Total Open Interest — 26 Weeks
Rising OI + rising price confirms trend · Falling OI = weakening conviction
Interpretation guide: Commercial hedgers (mills, merchants, producers) use futures to lock in prices on physical cotton positions. Heavy commercial shorts (−56,780) typically indicate producers hedging forward sales — a sign they expect current prices to be sustained or move higher. Increasing commercial longs would signal mills building cover, a bullish demand confirmation.
USDA Weekly Export Sales
US cotton export commitments · Net weekly sales · Cumulative season-to-date vs USDA seasonal target · Source: USDA FAS
Cumulative Season-to-Date vs USDA Target
8,340k bales soldof 12,500k bales target
66.7% complete~14 weeks remaining
4-Week Rolling Avg
312k
+25k vs prior 4wk
Latest Week Sales
328k
+5.1% vs 4-wk avg
Weeks to Season End
14
Pace required: 298k/wk
YoY Change
+8.4%
vs same point last year
Weekly Net Export Sales — Last 26 Weeks (Thousand 480-lb Bales)
4-wk avg reference: 312k balesLatest: 328k
Top Destination Countries (Season-to-Date)
China34%
Vietnam18%
Bangladesh14%
Turkey11%
Indonesia9%
Others14%
China2,840k+12% YoY
Vietnam1,501k+4% YoY
Bangladesh1,168k-2% YoY
Turkey918k+7% YoY
China at 34% of US shipments remains the dominant swing buyer. USDA FAS data lags by approximately 3 weeks — current week commitments include both new sales and outstanding cancellations.
Positioning Summary Metrics
Key derived signals from COT and open interest data · Week of 20 May 2026
MM Net Position
+53,221
contracts (long)
▲ Bullish
WoW Change
+3,020
contracts vs prior week
▲ Adding Longs
5-Yr Percentile Rank
72nd
relative to 5-year history
▲ Elevated
Total Open Interest
245,800
contracts
→ Stable
OI WoW Change
+1,840
contracts
▲ Growing
Hedger Net
−56,780
commercial short bias
▼ Heavy Short
Aggregate Signal
▲ Cautiously Bullish
4 Bullish
1 Neutral
1 Bearish
4 of 6 signals reading bullish. Key watch: export pace acceleration and any shift in MM positioning percentile above 80th.
Market Intelligence Summary
Positioning context and procurement implications · Week of 20 May 2026
Bullish Signals
- Managed money net longs at 72nd percentile — elevated but not extreme; room to extend further.
- Commercial hedgers increasing short exposure signals physical market participants locking in current prices — implicit price floor awareness.
- Rising open interest (+1,840 WoW) alongside net speculative longs adds conviction to the upward trend.
Watch Points
- US export sales running at 66.7% of USDA seasonal target with ~14 weeks remaining — pace needs to accelerate meaningfully.
- China remains top destination at 34% of shipments; any policy shift in Chinese state reserve buying would significantly alter export pace.
- Swap dealer net longs (+11,430) provide additional speculative fuel but add crowding risk if sentiment reverses quickly.
Procurement ImplicationSpeculative positioning is elevated (72nd percentile) but not at extreme levels that typically precede forced liquidation. Commercial hedgers are heavily short, indicating the physical market is well-supplied at current prices. Export sales are tracking on-pace at 66.7% of USDA target with 14 weeks left — no immediate supply squeeze signal. Current read: Cautiously bullish with watchful bias. Monitor for any managed money liquidation trigger (a sustained break below the 20-day moving average would be the primary unwinding signal to watch).
Key Thresholds to Monitor
80th Percentile
MM longs at extreme — liquidation risk zone
Now: 72nd
298k bales/week
Export pace needed to hit USDA full-season target
Now: 312k (✓)
Hedger Net > −40k
Commercial longs adding — bullish physical signal
Now: −56,780
OI > 260k contracts
Breakout in open interest confirms momentum
Now: 245,800
No comments yet. Be the first!