cotton-intelligence-platform
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ICE Cotton No.2 — 365-Day Forecast
Production-grade ensemble model (Prophet + LSTM) delivering daily price projections with 95% confidence bands. Refreshed automatically within 30 minutes of EOD settle.
Price Forecast Curve
365 DaysScenario Price Paths
4 HorizonsStrong demand recovery, lower US planted acreage, and a weakening USD drive prices toward the upper confidence band.
Steady global demand with normal weather patterns. Modest stock drawdown keeps prices near the central forecast.
Recession risk, higher global stocks, and substitution pressure from PSF push prices toward the lower confidence band.
Severe demand shock scenario. Trade disruption or macroeconomic crisis causes a sharp correction outside the 95% confidence band.
Volatility & Risk Metrics
Recent OHLC Data
ICE CT1| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 84.20 | 85.10 | 83.40 | 84.80 | +0.70% |
| 2026-05-15 | 83.50 | 84.30 | 82.90 | 84.10 | +0.60% |
| 2026-05-14 | 84.10 | 84.60 | 82.50 | 83.50 | -0.70% |
| 2026-05-13 | 83.80 | 85.00 | 83.20 | 84.20 | +0.50% |
| 2026-05-12 | 84.90 | 85.40 | 83.00 | 83.70 | -1.40% |
| 2026-05-11 | 84.00 | 85.20 | 83.80 | 85.10 | +1.30% |
| 2026-05-08 | 83.30 | 84.10 | 82.80 | 83.80 | +0.60% |
Prediction History
7-Day Forecasts| Forecast Date | Predicted | Actual | Error (¢) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 84.60 | 85.10 | -0.50 | Hit |
| 2026-05-08 | 83.20 | 83.80 | -0.60 | Hit |
| 2026-05-01 | 84.00 | 82.40 | +1.60 | Miss |
| 2026-04-24 | 83.50 | 83.30 | +0.20 | Hit |
| 2026-04-17 | 82.80 | 83.40 | -0.60 | Hit |
| 2026-04-10 | 84.20 | 82.60 | +1.60 | Miss |
| 2026-04-03 | 81.90 | 82.20 | -0.30 | Hit |
Model Accuracy
Backtest ResultsProcurement Window
Buying StrategyThe October–January window (highlighted) has historically provided the most favorable risk/reward profile for cotton procurement, coinciding with post-harvest price pressure and clearer supply visibility.
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